Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Will Hit New ATH After Fed AI Crisis Response

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has published a sweeping forecast claiming Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high. According to his scenario, the Federal Reserve will be forced to launch the largest money printing program in history — in response to a credit crisis triggered by the mass adoption of artificial intelligence.

Hayes's scenario: from AI to banking crisis

Hayes models a situation where the mass displacement of knowledge workers through AI automation leads to a cascade of financial problems. Without employment, people stop servicing their loans and mortgages, hitting U.S. regional banks hardest — the very institutions that hold the bulk of such debt.

This domino effect resembles the March 2023 situation when the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank forced the Fed to intervene urgently. But this time the scale would be significantly larger.

Why Bitcoin benefits from crisis

Hayes's logic is straightforward: in response to defaults and banking panic, the Federal Reserve will launch an emergency rescue program with massive dollar issuance. And Bitcoin, in his words, is "the most responsive freely traded asset to the fiat credit supply."

In other words — the more money the Fed prints, the higher Bitcoin climbs. This is exactly what happened in 2020–2021 during COVID-era stimulus and in March 2023 after the regional banking collapse.

Short- and medium-term risks

Hayes warns that further decline is possible before the rally. Bitcoin could drop below $60,000 while political delays hold back the central bank's response. He advises investors to stay liquid, avoid leverage, and wait for a clear signal from the Fed.

The current market situation confirms this caution: since the start of 2026, Bitcoin has fallen 24% and Ethereum 34%, marking the worst year-to-date performance in the history of both assets.

What this means for investors

Hayes's forecast is not a promise of quick gains but a medium-term scenario with clear logic: AI revolution → unemployment → credit crisis → money printing → Bitcoin rally. The key question is not "whether" the Fed will intervene, but "when."

For those planning to enter the market, Hayes recommends watching U.S. labor market data and regional bank earnings reports — these indicators will be the first to signal the onset of a crisis.