Bitcoin Holds $64K While S&P 500 Hits Record Highs

Bitcoin is holding just above $64,000 for a third straight session, even as global stock indexes hit fresh record highs on Wednesday amid renewed enthusiasm for AI-related shares. For traders, the split looks unusual: stocks are climbing, oil is getting cheaper, and the largest cryptocurrency has ignored the favorable backdrop for three sessions running.

Bitcoin and Ether Fall Behind the Stock Market Rally

On Wednesday, the MSCI All Country World Index rose 0.4% to another record close. Its Asia-Pacific benchmark added 2.2%, and Australian shares also hit a fresh peak. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both closed at record highs a day earlier, SK Hynix shares jumped 6.4% at the Seoul open, and Nvidia gained more than 2% in after-hours trading. Not every big name moved together, though. AMD dropped 9% on a soft sales outlook, and SpaceX shares fell 7.5% on higher than expected spending on artificial intelligence development.

Bitcoin looks frozen next to that picture. The asset trades just above $64,000, roughly flat over the past week and about 49% below its October peak of $126,000. Ether slipped to $1,864 and is the only major token in the red on the week, down 2%. This is now the third straight session where cheap oil, easing rate expectations, and a risk-on mood in stocks have failed to pull crypto along, even though that combination usually lifts risk assets together.

Cheap Oil and a Hormuz Deal Are Pressuring Markets

Brent crude futures fell 1.1% on Wednesday to about $78.50 a barrel. The drop followed a report from Axios that Washington, Tehran, and Oman are close to a deal to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, with an announcement expected as early as today. The Strait of Hormuz remains a key route for oil exports out of the Persian Gulf, so any threat to its operation typically pushes fuel prices higher. Roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil supply passes through the strait every day, which is why markets react so sharply to any news about a deal there.

Treasuries and gold gained at the same time, as traders trimmed bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Three classic risk gauges (stocks, oil, and bonds) all sent a positive signal to markets this week, since cheaper oil usually means lower inflation and less reason for the central bank to keep rates high.

Altcoins Are Splitting in Different Directions

While Bitcoin and Ether tread water, other assets are moving in different directions. XRP lost nearly 1% and fell to $1.07, dogecoin dropped roughly the same amount to just under 7 cents, and tron slipped less than a percent to 33 cents. Solana barely moved and is holding near $73.60.

• BNB gained more than 1% on the day and leads major tokens over the week, up 5% to $598.
• The HYPE token from Hyperliquid was the biggest daily gainer, up 3% to almost $56 and also up 3% on the week.
• Ether stayed the only major token in the red for the week, down 2%.
• Solana is trading almost unchanged, around $73.60, matching the broader stall.

The mixed picture among altcoins suggests money hasn't left the market. It is simply rotating between individual stories rather than moving as one block behind stocks.

The Market Is Waiting for a Signal From Outside

CoinDesk analysts point out that the crypto market has been selective about which news it reacts to this week. A favorable macro backdrop (cheap oil, record stocks, softer rate expectations) has failed to move bitcoin for a third straight session. That points to the drag coming from inside the crypto market rather than from outside events. A similar pattern has played out before: an asset can ignore good news for weeks and then catch up with one sharp move. By that logic, if the market fails to react even to a confirmed deal, after already failing to react to the mere prospect of one, that would mean buyers are simply missing right now.

Bitcoin's stall also ripples through Ukrainian exchangers, where the rate against the hryvnia adjusts daily to match global quotes. While the broader market sits still, demand for buying and selling large amounts has stayed steady, without a rush. Still, if the Hormuz deal does move oil prices, that could show up in hryvnia rates within days. Anyone planning to sell Bitcoin for hryvnia should watch oil headlines as closely as exchange charts this week. The link between the oil and crypto markets has become unusually clear, and that is exactly why local quotes could shift faster than they appear to.

What Happens If the Hormuz Deal Is Confirmed

An official Hormuz deal is expected soon, and that moment will be the cleanest macro catalyst the market gets this week. If oil prices and stock indexes react while Bitcoin stays on the sidelines again, that would confirm the internal-weakness read on crypto. If the asset finally catches up with the equity rally, the gap between asset classes would start to close.

For now, $64,000 looks more like a waiting level than a launchpad for a new move. Based on derivatives data, traders are not rushing to place large bets in either direction until the deal gets an official confirmation. Open interest data on futures exchanges is not showing a rush into either long or short positions right now, which further points to a cautious mood among traders these days. The next few hours will likely answer whether crypto can finally join the rally that has been running across traditional markets for several days.