Bitcoin climbed to $64,750 on Sunday after Donald Trump announced a US-Iran peace deal and the opening of the Hormuz Strait. The market moved within hours. Now attention turns to the $65,000-67,000 zone, where short positions are stacked.
What Happened This Week
Bitcoin spent most of the week under $63,000 as risk-off sentiment weighed on the market and bears held the upper hand. The shift came on Saturday, June 13. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif confirmed that the US and Iran were approaching the final stage of negotiations. Then Trump posted this message on Truth Social.
"The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL."
- Donald Trump, Truth Social post, June 13, 2026
According to TradingView data, Bitcoin on Bitstamp jumped from $63,000 to $64,750 within hours of those posts. As of Sunday, BTC is holding in the $64,000-64,500 range. Tehran disputed the specific terms and timeline of the deal, but markets largely ignored the pushback. Optimism proved stronger than caution.
Why Does the Iran Deal Move Bitcoin?
The Hormuz Strait between Iran and Oman handles around 20% of global oil supply. It is one of the narrowest and most critical shipping lanes in the world. Any threat of closure pushes oil prices higher, and higher oil means faster inflation globally.
In 2026, Bitcoin trades mostly as a risk asset, not a store of value. When inflation rises, the Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated, making risky investments less attractive compared to bonds and cash. Capital flows out of BTC and into safer instruments.
A deal removes that inflation risk. Open strait means stable oil prices, less pressure on the Fed, and more appetite for risk. The market buys BTC the same way it buys tech stocks after positive macro data. This pattern played out several times over the past few months as tensions in the region rose and fell.
What the Technical Data Shows
Several signals from the derivatives market aligned this week.
- The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) is holding as support. Trader SuperBro described the setup as "constructive" and dismissed concerns about a bearish breakdown pattern forming.
- Open interest on derivatives platforms is rising while funding rates are falling. New positions are opening predominantly on the short side.
- CoinGlass liquidation data shows a heavy cluster of potential forced closures in the $65,000-67,000 zone.
- The volume point of control (nPOC) on exchange order books sits above current price.
Cryptic Trades put the situation clearly. Rising open interest without rising funding rates shows the market is betting against the move, not chasing it. If BTC clears $65,000-67,000, those shorts get automatically liquidated and the move can accelerate sharply within minutes.
Is There Still a Bear Case?
Yes. The deal is not signed yet. Tehran disputed key terms and the timeline, and the final document may turn out less significant than expected. On top of that, the 200-week SMA has failed as support before in extended bear phases. CoinTelegraph noted earlier that traders should not treat this indicator as a reliable safety net in prolonged downtrends.
If the deal falls apart or disappoints on details, Bitcoin could revisit $62,000 and lower. That zone held as support for several weeks and remains the key reference point for both sides of the market.
What to Watch in the Days Ahead
SuperBro set the test clearly. If Bitcoin breaks through $65,000-67,000, the bear case takes a serious hit. If price reverses from that zone, the picture stays uncertain for at least another week.
Those tracking exchange rates and considering selling Bitcoin for hryvnia have two clear scenarios ahead. The details of the US-Iran deal should become public early in the week. Then the market will know whether this agreement carries real weight, or is diplomatic posturing.
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