Bitcoin's Death Cross Holds Even as Weak US Jobs Data Lifts Price

A weak US jobs report for July pushed Bitcoin to a new monthly high and forced markets to rethink bets on the Federal Reserve's September meeting. The move rippled beyond crypto traders into stocks and currency markets.

A weak jobs report lifted risk assets

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, far below the 95,000 gain economists had expected. Unemployment held at 4.1%, though the dip came not from new hiring but from people leaving the labor force altogether. It was the first net job loss since the pandemic-era recovery began, which is why traders treated the print as louder than an average monthly release.

Prior months were revised down too. May's figure was cut from +129,000 to +63,000, and June's from +57,000 to +20,000. Combined, employment over those two months came in 103,000 lower than first reported.

Ahead of the release, Bitget Research's chief analyst Ryan Lee said the numbers would set the tone for both the September Fed meeting and the Jackson Hole symposium later in August. Sygnum Bank CIO Fabian Dori said new Fed chair Kevin Warsh would weigh the scale of the labor market slowdown more than the headline negative number itself. Markets read the weak print and the downward revisions as a sign the Fed is unlikely to hike rates. Treasury yields fell, the dollar dropped 0.5%, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq opened up 0.5% and more than 1% respectively.

How it moved the Bitcoin price

Bitcoin reacted almost instantly. TradingView data showed BTC/USD hitting $65,340 on Bitstamp, up 1.3% on the day and marking a fresh monthly high. The coin later pulled back and settled near $64,900 to $65,000, adding roughly $680 for the session.

CME FedWatch futures showed the odds of a September rate hike falling to 40% from 55% a day earlier. Just before the report, most traders had priced in a 0.25% hike; a pause is now the base case. Short-term traders used the move to lock in gains or open new positions on hopes of a softer Fed tone ahead.

The chart still looks bearish

Despite the daily gain, Bitcoin's chart still looks weak. The 50-day moving average sits below the 200-day, a setup traders call a death cross. It forms when the shorter-term trend hasn't caught up with the longer one, and it usually points to a lingering downward bias.

The coin peaked near $80,000 in mid-May before sliding to a July low around $58,000. Since then price has moved sideways without closing above either moving average. The Relative Strength Index sits at 54.6, a neutral zone with no sign of overbought or oversold conditions.

Analysts are watching a handful of levels for direction:

• A daily close above the 50-day average and the $66,000 resistance would open a path toward the 200-day average and cloud resistance near $72,000.
• A break below $60,000 would confirm bears still control the structure and point back to the July low of $58,000.
• On the Myriad prediction market, run by Decrypt's parent company, traders put 65% odds on Bitcoin revisiting $55,000 before any push toward $84,000.
• The $65,000 mark remains the line in the sand: above it, July's chop looks like base-building, below $60,000 it looks more like a bear flag.

Big players see resilience, not a trend shift

Trading firm QCP Capital called the macro picture for Bitcoin uncertain in its daily note, but pointed to the resilience of Bitcoin and altcoins after a rough week. The market absorbed the Coldcard wallet exploit and BTC sales from corporations including Strategy, yet demand for panic protection on options markets stayed limited. The Coldcard wallet exploit alone had cost the market roughly $247 million a week earlier, and QCP Capital called the price holding up against that backdrop a stronger signal than the post-jobs-report bounce itself.

"An orderly slowdown supports the liquidity relief case, while a print weak enough to raise growth concerns can still pressure risk assets even as rate odds move."

- Fabian Dori, CIO at Sygnum Bank, comment to Cointelegraph, August 7, 2026

In other words, a softer Fed tone is no guarantee of a rally. If upcoming data points to a sharper economic slowdown, risk assets could still take a hit despite a pause on rate hikes.

What it means for the exchange market

For Bitcoin holders and traders on crypto exchangers, moves like this open a short-term window rather than confirm a new uptrend. BTC-to-hryvnia rates on exchangers track the global price, so a run toward $65,000 shows up in exchanger quotes almost immediately.

Sharp intraday swings like this 1.3% jump in a matter of hours tend to widen spreads on P2P platforms and exchangers for a short stretch. That doesn't change the bigger picture, but it means the buy and sell price for Bitcoin can drift further apart than usual for a few hours.

Some traders use moments like this to lock in gains and sell Bitcoin for hryvnia rather than wait for confirmation of a breakout. Others shift part of their holdings into USDT to sit out the volatility without cashing out entirely. That approach doesn't remove the risk of a slide back to the July low, but it does buy room to maneuver while the market waits on fresh macro data ahead of September.

For now, $65,000 marks the line above which the market starts trusting a recovery. Below $60,000, the conversation shifts back to July's bearish scenario. The next inflation data and the Fed's September meeting will likely decide which way the balance tips.