On July 3, 2026, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. confirmed that Bitcoin's Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio printed a buy signal for the first time since November 2022. The signal appeared across multiple trading sessions in late June and early July 2026. Analysts are cautious: the signal does not confirm the bear cycle is over.
What the On-Chain Indicator Shows
A UTXO (unspent transaction output) is the basic unit of account in the Bitcoin network. Each coin that has not been spent since its last transfer is an active UTXO. The Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio measures the difference between the share of the BTC supply that last moved at a profit and the share that last moved at a loss. When more coins move at a loss, the ratio turns negative - the typical picture during a bear market.
Throughout 2026, the indicator stayed in deeply negative territory. In late June, it began recovering and crossed the signal threshold from below. Once that happened, the model automatically printed BUY across several sessions. The last time the same signal appeared was November 2022, when BTC traded below $16,000 - and that period turned out to be the bottom of the previous bear cycle.
Why the November 2022 Comparison Matters
November 2022 was the darkest month for the crypto market: the FTX collapse, investor confidence at its lowest, Bitcoin near $15,500-16,000. The UTXO indicator fired its signal then too - and proved accurate. A slow recovery followed that became a new bull cycle in 2023-2024.
A second CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, also highlighted the metric this week. "This won't stop BTC from going lower, but we now have several signals pointing to seller exhaustion. The next step is a renewal of demand, and that could take some time," he wrote in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post on Wednesday.
"The ratio dropped into deeply negative territory and then crossed back above the signal threshold on the rebound, which caused the model to print BUY on several sessions in late June and early July. This is the first buy trigger since November 2022, which was the bottom of the previous bear cycle."
- Axel Adler Jr., analyst at CryptoQuant, blog post on the CryptoQuant platform, July 3, 2026
What Is Holding Back a Bottom Call
Despite the signal, analysts describe the current situation as a process, not a completed event. The share of Bitcoin held at a loss (supply in loss) has not yet reached the levels seen in previous bear markets. That matters because historically, the peak of supply in loss coincided with the cycle bottom.
Adler forecasts that the 90-day simple moving average (SMA) of supply in loss should reach its bear-market reversal target within two months. Until then, the UTXO signal should be read as preliminary. Confirmation requires two things: the UTXO ratio must hold above zero, and BTC price must rise alongside it. If the ratio falls back below zero without price support, the signal will be treated as a false trigger.
Bitcoin Price and Market Context
As of July 3, 2026, Bitcoin is trading at $62,300 - a nine-day high. The move followed weak US nonfarm payroll data (NFP) that raised expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $222 million in net inflows on Thursday, the first positive daily figure after ten consecutive sessions of outflows.
The combination of a price rebound, ETF inflows, and a UTXO buy signal gives the market several independent indicators in a short window. But CryptoQuant analysts are clear: demand renewal remains the missing piece. Without sustained buying volume, these signals are a preliminary picture, not a confirmed reversal.
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