Kalshi in talks to raise $1B at a $40B valuation

Prediction market Kalshi is in "advanced talks" to raise about $1 billion at a $40 billion valuation, Reuters reports. Four months ago the company was valued at $22 billion. Here is what such a valuation means and why investors are willing to pay it.

What do we know about the round?

According to Reuters sources, existing investor Sequoia Capital and asset manager Wellington Management are in talks to lead. Tiger Global Management and Dragoneer Investment Group are named as possible participants. Neither the company nor the investors have commented yet.

Rumors of a $40 billion price tag first surfaced in June. The Financial Times wrote then that a deal could close as soon as the third quarter.

What is a valuation, and how does it climb this fast?

A valuation shows what investors think the whole company is worth. It is derived from the price at which new money enters the business. If a $1 billion round closes at $40 billion, investors are effectively buying a stake of about 2.5% (the money divided by the valuation).

Kalshi has shown this pattern before. In May a $1 billion Series F doubled its valuation from December, which puts the company at roughly $11 billion back then. The pace is now even faster.

• December 2025: about $11 billion (calculated from the reported doubling).
• May 2026: $22 billion, a $1 billion Series F.
• September 2026: talks at $40 billion for another $1 billion.

Why does it matter for prediction markets?

Prediction markets let people trade contracts on the outcome of events, from elections to the price of Bitcoin. It is one of few segments where traditional funds and crypto meet on the same product. A $40 billion valuation makes Kalshi one of the most expensive players next to its crypto rivals.

But capital arrives together with risk. Kalshi recently lost an appeal, and the case may reach the US Supreme Court. According to The Block, the company is also ending its liquidity incentive program amid wash trading allegations. Investors seem to bet that regulatory fights will not stop growth.

What comes next?

For now these are talks, not a closed round. Terms may change, and so may the list of participants. If the deal happens, Kalshi gets another $1 billion to expand, and regulation becomes its main brake.

We are following the story and will report once the company or investors confirm the details.