On July 3, Bitcoin reached $62,295 on Bitstamp, its highest price since June 24. The move came after weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data, which pushed investors toward risk assets under the "bad news is good news" dynamic: soft jobs figures reduce the chance the Federal Reserve raises rates, and markets reacted accordingly.
US markets were closed July 4 for Independence Day. The day before, on July 2, the Dow Jones closed at a record high. Global equity market capitalization also hit a new all-time high.
Nine-Day High at $62,295 and the Resistance Cluster
BTC/USD reached $62,295 on Bitstamp on July 3, the highest level since June 24. Trader Exitpump, who tracks order book data, noted "controlled slow buying" without signs of aggressive demand. The pattern looks positive for further gains, though the $62,000 to $62,500 range holds a dense cluster of sell-side limit orders.
Traders describe this zone as a "strong resistance area." A clean break above $62,500 would clear the path to the 200-week simple moving average, the next major technical level above current prices.
Global Stocks at ATH: Dow Jones and Record Market Cap
The US stock market closed at record levels on July 2. The Kobeissi Letter reported that the global equity market cap also set a new all-time high. "Global equities are in the midst of one of the most powerful rallies in history," they wrote in their post.
The pre-holiday equity rally is driven by expectations of looser monetary policy ahead. Bitcoin and stock indices are moving in sync, both reacting to the same macro signal: a lower probability of a Fed rate hike.
How Weak NFP Pushed Risk Assets Higher
US jobs data came in below estimates, which analysts read as easing inflationary pressure. Trading resource Mosaic Asset Company explained the mechanism: "The knee-jerk reaction from investors was to push stock index futures higher, signaling a regime where bad economic news is good for stocks due to the impact on the rate outlook."
Mosaic also said the data fits a "Goldilocks" picture: weak enough to avoid growth fears but not cold enough to pull additional rate hikes forward. For Bitcoin, this means staying in the role of a risk asset in portfolios sensitive to rate expectations.
200-Week SMA at $62,652: The Weekly Candle Test
Trader Daan Crypto Trades focused on the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $62,652. He called the current trading zone "important" and said the weekly candle will show whether Bitcoin can hold its low-timeframe bullish structure. "It is key for BTC now to hold this breakout," he wrote.
The 200-week SMA is a long-term reference point for Bitcoin cycles. A weekly close above $62,652 would confirm a short-term trend shift. A close below would confirm the level as resistance, setting up a potential pullback toward lower support zones.
Fed in September: Equal Odds of Pause and Hike
CME FedWatch Tool data shows roughly equal probability of a pause or rate hike at the Fed's September meeting. The market is effectively waiting: weak NFP favors a pause, but the inflation picture has not given a clear all-clear signal.
For crypto, the uncertainty itself is supportive. As long as the market has not priced a hike as the base case, risk assets keep their floor. A sharp jump in hike probability to 70-80% would shift that calculus and add selling pressure to both Bitcoin and equities.
What Comes Next: Hold or Pull Back
The short-term picture depends on the weekly candle close relative to the 200-week SMA at $62,652 and the resistance cluster at $62,000 to $62,500. The background remains supportive for now: global stocks at ATH, rate uncertainty limiting sellers, and no sign of aggressive profit-taking on exchanges.
The downside risk stays alive if $62,000 to $62,500 holds as resistance rather than flipping to support. A close above $62,652 on the weekly timeframe would be the cleaner signal that buyers have taken control.
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