Bitcoin Falls Below $62,300 After US-Iran Ceasefire Collapse

Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped sharply on Wednesday morning. New airstrikes between the US and Iran broke a fragile ceasefire and pushed crypto markets back into risk-off mode. Altcoin holders with heavy margin positions took the biggest hit.

Fresh strikes in the Strait of Hormuz rattled the market

Speaking to NATO leaders, US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran was "over" and called talks with Tehran a "waste of time." The remarks came after US Central Command hit more than 60 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boats in the Strait of Hormuz to stop them from disrupting shipping. Iran retaliated with strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait.

Markets reacted within minutes. The CoinDesk 20 Index fell 2.9% since midnight UTC, with only one token in the basket holding gains. Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, each fell more than 2%, with BTC dropping to $62,293. Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures slid as much as 1.5%. The Dollar Index (DXY) climbed instead, as traders priced in another round of oil-driven inflation.

Who took the hardest hit

Total liquidations over 24 hours reached $450 million, with nearly $350 million of that coming from altcoin pairs. JUP, ETHFI and PUMP all lost between 5.5% and 9.3% within hours. Solana took the sharpest fall: the token wiped out its entire July rally and dropped back to $77 after testing $84 on Monday.

For holders of Solana and other thinly traded tokens, the move is a familiar pattern on risk-off days. Altcoins fall faster than Bitcoin and recover more slowly.

Derivatives point to cautious optimism

Bitcoin futures open interest slipped from roughly 740,000 BTC to 730,000 BTC over the day. That points to position closing rather than a wave of fresh short bets. Ethereum tells a different story: open interest held near 13.95 million tokens despite $90 million in liquidations.

One clear example is the Canton Network CC token. Its price fell to its lowest level since January even as futures open interest climbed to a two-week high and funding rates turned deeply negative, close to -20%. That combination usually shows up when short positions are crowded and exposed to a sharp squeeze. Implied volatility gauges BVIV and EVIV for Bitcoin and Ethereum have risen for a second straight day, and the one-week options skew on Deribit shifted to nearly 20% in favor of puts, up from 16% a day earlier. Yet the highest 24-hour trading volume came from BTC call options at the $80,000 strike. Traders are hedging and still holding upside bets at the same time.

What else altcoin holders should watch

Summer liquidity is thin, and margin debt across the system stays high, which amplifies price swings in both directions. A few signals point to a possible turn soon.

• The average RSI across altcoins dropped to 40 out of 100 from 47 on Tuesday, edging closer to oversold territory.
• Not every token is moving with the market. MORPHO gained 4% since midnight as the protocol's total value locked topped 4 million ETH for the first time.
• The 24-hour cumulative volume delta on open interest stays negative for both BTC and ETH, meaning market orders, not limit orders from large players, are driving price action.
• Futures markets are still pricing in a bounce, but confidence in that bounce holding is thin for now.

Fed minutes are the next test

Later on Wednesday, the market will get the minutes from the Fed's June meeting. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has repeated that the central bank remains committed to bringing inflation back to 2%, even if that disappoints anyone hoping for relief under pressure from the White House. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Tuesday found that consumers expect inflation of 3.7% over the next 12 months. That is the highest reading since September 2023 and up from 3.5% in May. Expectations for the next three years climbed to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022.

"Wednesday's Fed minutes are the pin. With longs this crowded and funding this rich, a hawkish read is exactly the spark that flushes leverage, and the Strategy authorization hangs over every rally. We respect the bounce, we do not trust it, and we keep size honest into the minutes."

- Marex analysts, comment for CoinDesk's Daybook newsletter, July 8, 2026

Ukrainian traders and crypto holders feel this volatility directly too. Rates at which Ukrainian exchange offices buy Bitcoin for hryvnia are slightly worse this morning than a week ago, since a global correction usually shows up first in cash and card exchange rates. Exchange offices rarely adjust their fees for one-day swings, so the difference matters most to anyone selling large amounts right as prices drop.

For now, the market is treating the conflict as another spike in volatility, not a break in Bitcoin's July gains. But every new exchange of fire in the strait means another stress test for traders holding margin positions, and the coming Fed minutes could either calm the market or give it a fresh reason to sell.