Bitcoin Holders Extend 30-Day Profit Streak as Price Drops on CLARITY Act Odds

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant has recorded the longest streak of profitability among Bitcoin's short-term holders in all of 2026. Wallets holding coins for less than six months have stayed in the green for 30 straight days, the same signal that has previously preceded the end of bear markets.

On the same day, September 15, the price of BTC slipped 1.7% to $76,862. Odds on the CLARITY Act passing this year crashed on Polymarket, and traders sold into the news. This is already the second sizable price pullback this week tied to a political factor rather than to classic market drivers like trading volume or futures liquidations.

Thirty days in profit: what CryptoQuant found

The group in question is short-term holders, or STH, wallets that received coins less than six months ago. These investors are more sensitive to short-term price swings and react to news faster than long-term holders. Unlike long-term owners, they tend to buy and sell within a matter of weeks, so their mood is often the first place a shift in market behavior shows up.

Since August 16, part of the STH base has held onto profit on its positions. CryptoQuant notes that the last comparable streak came in January 2026, but it lasted less than a week. In May, losses among this group dominated instead.

Cost basis of two cohorts: $63,372 versus $73,190

CryptoQuant splits the STH group into two sub-cohorts. Wallets aged one to three months carry an average entry cost of $63,372. The older sub-group, aged three to six months, bought coins at an average of $73,190.

The gap between these levels and the current price forms the profit cushion described in CryptoQuant's report. Holders whose cost basis sits below the current rate are already cashing out into fiat. In Ukraine, such holders often sell Bitcoin for hryvnia through exchangers, pricing the trade close to the exchange rate. The $63,372 and $73,190 levels effectively act as zones of psychological support. As long as price holds above them, most holders are willing to wait rather than sell at a loss. When a large share of wallets bought coins at roughly the same price, that zone tends to turn into a magnet for trading activity. Some take profit as soon as price returns to their entry point, while others buy the dip instead, betting on further gains.

SOPR and the wider investor base in profit since August 19

The STH signal is backed by the broader spent output profit ratio, or SOPR, which covers all investors rather than just short-term ones. It crossed the 1.0 breakeven mark on August 19 and has held above it since. A coin's sale price is divided by the price at which it was originally bought. When the vast majority of transactions happen at a profit, the ratio climbs above one.

Both indicators rest on Bitcoin's 25% price gain in August, most of which BTC has kept through September. Onchain analytics suite Checkonchain wrote last week that STH behavior is "starting to look more like those early bull-market recoveries." Analysts favor SOPR over a plain price chart because it captures actual wallet behavior rather than just exchange quotes, making it easier to tell a durable recovery apart from a brief bounce in thin trading.

"The bear market trend only truly reverses once profits settle in for good STH and then push them to hold their positions and ride the upside."

- CryptoQuant, from the CryptoQuant Insights blog post published September 15, 2026

Price fell 1.7% as CLARITY Act odds collapsed

As recently as Sunday, Polymarket traders priced the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year at 35%, reading a revised Republican proposal as a positive sign. By Monday, key Senate Democrats said the new text hadn't won them over, and the figure fell to 16%.

Republicans need 60 votes to advance the bill, which would split oversight of the crypto market between the SEC and the CFTC. Without Democratic support, Tuesday's vote risks stalling, taking with it some of the optimism that had been priced into BTC over the past week. A swing that sharp within a few hours is typical for assets whose price hinges on political headlines. The market prices in an optimistic scenario first, then quickly reprices it once senators speak up. Similar swings played out over the summer, when news about revised US regulatory proposals sent BTC's price up and down by several percent multiple times a week, and traders still don't seem used to that pace of headlines.

2022 versus 2026: does the bear market ending pattern repeat

CryptoQuant saw a similar picture near the end of the 2022 bear market, when a sustained STH profit streak preceded a trend reversal higher. Analysts draw the parallel cautiously, pointing out that duration, not the mere fact of profit, is what matters.

Short bursts of optimism have shown up before. STH also turned profitable in January 2026, but that streak broke down in under a week. In May, losses among this cohort outweighed profit entirely. Should the current streak outlast previous flare-ups, CryptoQuant notes that has historically coincided with a gradual shift of capital from short-term speculative trades into longer-term holding. Back in 2022, the STH profit streak itself ran for several weeks before price finally turned higher for good early the following year. If that parallel holds, the coming months will be decisive for confirming or ruling out the same pattern this time.

What to watch in the coming days

The week ahead stacks up several triggers for BTC's price at once. The Senate vote on the CLARITY Act could either restore optimism or bury it for good. At the same time, the market is waiting on a Federal Reserve rate decision, which typically moves crypto prices harder than any single regulatory headline.

• If BTC drops below $73,190, the older STH cohort could slip into loss as well.
• Senate vote: a failed procedural vote on September 15 could send CLARITY Act odds back into single digits.
• This week's Fed rate decision traditionally sways risk appetite more than regulatory news.
• Younger cohort's cost basis: as long as price holds above $63,372, most STH stay in profit even through short dips.
• Trading volume on major exchanges: a sharp drop in liquidity can amplify any price move in either direction.

The streak holds for now, running 30 straight days, already longer than any stretch in 2026. But as in 2022, a firm verdict on whether the bear market has ended will only come in a few more weeks, once it's clear whether price can withstand the pressure of political uncertainty. Until then, both signals, onchain STH profit and the exchange rate, are worth reading together rather than in isolation.