The crypto industry has spent about $176 million on the US midterm elections, yet only 13% of Americans say a candidate's support for blockchain and crypto is very important. The gap between the money and what voters ask for is shaping up as the main storyline of the November 3 vote.
According to a Reuters review, the money is spread across more than 100 races. Super PAC Fairshake and its affiliates account for $150.8 million through October 20, or roughly 86% of the total. The market heads into the vote in a weak state: Bitcoin trades near $76,500 and dipped below $77,000 earlier this week.
$176 million across more than 100 races
The average check is small, under $1.8 million per race. The distribution is lopsided, though. Defend American Jobs, a Fairshake affiliate, has disclosed more than $46 million in spending against Sherrod Brown in Ohio's Senate race. That is about 26% of the whole industry total, concentrated in one state.
In House races, Fairshake and its affiliated committees back 19 Republicans and 14 Democrats. The near-even split between the parties shows an industry looking for votes on both sides rather than betting on one camp.
Only 13% of voters call crypto a priority
An Ipsos survey commissioned by the DeFi Education Fund polled 1,545 American adults from September 8 to 16, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 points. Only 13% said it is extremely or very important that a candidate supports the growth of blockchain, crypto and decentralized finance. Among Republicans the figure is 15%, among Democrats 13%, so there is almost no partisan gap.
A broader pitch works better. 35% say it is very important that candidates encourage builders of next-generation fintech to work in the US, the top item in the survey. New rules that allow innovation in the financial system drew 26%. On the first item, Republicans lead Democrats 45% to 30%.
Why the industry is betting on elections after Clarity failed
In September the Clarity Act, which was meant to set federal rules for crypto markets, failed a vote in the Senate. The dispute centered on ethics provisions tied to President Trump's crypto interests. Since then the industry has leaned on regulators and is waiting for rules from the SEC and CFTC.
Lobbying is already paying off in Congress. The number of lawmakers with an A rating from Stand With Crypto has grown to 332, from 96 when the group launched in 2023, nearly 3.5 times as many. The survey paints a different picture. 63% of respondents say the financial system needs an upgrade to fend off threats such as AI and cybercrime, and 49% do not want the government deciding which products they can invest in. Voters care about security and choice, not about crypto itself.
New Jersey lifted the Coinbase ban three days before the vote
On October 30 the state's securities regulator rescinded its 2023 order against Coinbase's staking service and withdrew a $5 million penalty. The decision came without a ruling on the merits, so the bureau kept the right to open a fresh case. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong promised that users in the state would regain staking access very soon.
The ban lasted more than three years. By Coinbase's estimate, New Jersey residents missed out on over $15 million in rewards, and Californians on over $89 million. California, Maryland, Wisconsin and Washington are still pursuing the exchange. In Washington the regulator seeks a $4 million fine.
What could reshape the Senate
Prediction markets favor Democrats in the fight for Senate control. In that case Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a prominent crypto critic, would chair the Banking Committee. Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a leading Republican advocate for the industry in Congress, retires in January 2027.
New Jersey reversed course under Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill, who as a House member voted for both GENIUS and CLARITY. The state's senator Cory Booker helped negotiate market structure legislation, but opposed advancing Clarity in September. Betting on a single party does not pay for the industry.
Bitcoin waits for the result near $76,500
The market enters the election in a weak mood. Bitcoin slipped as chipmaker stocks sold off, and before that it was pressed by the fallout from the record Binance hack. For traders the vote is one more source of volatility, alongside the US jobs report.
In numbers the summary is simple: $176 million against 13%. If Democrats take the Senate, the industry will have to deal with Warren, and regulator decisions like New Jersey's may prove not final. A stronger result is possible where support for crypto can be framed as protection of choice and security rather than a standalone issue.
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