Galaxy Research and Standard Chartered on Bitcoin Bottom

Bitcoin fell to $59,000 last week, dropping 53% from its all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025. On Friday, June 12, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick wrote in a client note: "I think we have now seen the low in crypto asset prices. Winter is over." Bitcoin was trading above $63,700 at time of writing.

Galaxy Digital published a separate analysis the same day. Head of research Alex Thorn reviewed every BTC cycle peak and trough and named the base case bottom range for the current cycle as $40,000 to $46,000. He also noted that only 4 of 13 capitulation indicators have fired so far.

Bottom Indicators: 4 of 13 Have Fired

Most of the stronger capitulation signals have yet to appear. Thorn checked the timing of previous cycles. Prior lows formed roughly 12 to 13 months after the peak. The current drawdown is eight months old, so by historical timing the bottom search may not be over.

Bitcoin's MVRV ratio currently stands at 2.29. In the previous four cycles, this metric reached values between 2.93 and 5.91 at the cycle low. The current reading shows the market has not yet entered the zone of mass loss realization typical of classic capitulation.

The "Calm Top" of 2025 Resets the Model

October's peak was unusually quiet. Only two of eleven classic overheating indicators fired, and the Pi Cycle Top failed to trigger for the first time in BTC's measurable history. Thorn called this a "calm top."

Because the peak was muted, the network's realized value now sits at 43.7% of ATH. In the three prior cycles at a comparable stage, that figure was 34%, 21%, and 17%. More coins changed hands at higher prices, which raises the structural floor for the current cycle low.

Three Scenarios from Galaxy Research

All three scenarios are anchored to the realized price. The base case puts the low at 75-86% of current realized price. Thorn warned: "The floor can move. Cost basis is reflexive. In a real panic, coins change hands at a loss and drag the average down. A 10-30% cost basis decline pulls the implied floor from around $40,000 back toward $28,000."

The peak-to-trough decline has narrowed each cycle. The previous four registered 85%, 84%, 77%, and now 51%. Galaxy attributes this to a growing share of long-term holders who do not sell on the first dip.

Standard Chartered: The Market Has Bottomed

Kendrick pointed to external catalysts. Signals of a possible U.S.-Iran peace deal ahead of the G7 summit eased geopolitical risk in oil markets. SpaceX's $1.75 trillion IPO added risk appetite. Middle East conflict had pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher, making risk assets less attractive relative to government debt. An oil retreat will ease that pressure.

Kendrick named three conditions to confirm the turn. The market needs to see further decline in oil prices, renewed inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and new purchases from Strategy. Standard Chartered had set a $100,000 price target for BTC back in February. Since then Bitcoin fell from $90,000 to $59,000 and recovered to current $63,700.

Order Book: $2.68B in Shorts and a $70,000 Target

The technical setup supports recovery. The bid-ask ratio has stayed positive at 0.05 since Bitcoin tagged its annual low. Participants with orders up to $10,000 added $53 million in net buying; the $10,000-$100,000 cohort added $157 million. Large players reduced net selling pressure by $900 million.

Analyst Kripto Holder flagged a $2.68 billion short cluster near $64,600 as the primary upside catalyst. Position data from PILTR shows 237 long levels against 128 short levels, creating roughly $4 billion in positive imbalance. The technical target is the $67,500-$70,500 daily fair value gap left behind after June's sell-off.

Both research teams diverge on timing but share one conclusion. The structural low of this cycle sits above previous cycles because of the muted 2025 peak. Standard Chartered sees the bottom already in. Galaxy Research names specific price levels but recommends waiting for more indicators. With 4 of 13 bottom signals active, the final answer is not yet confirmed.