On April 3, 2026, Good Friday, the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, and bond markets remained closed. At 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March Nonfarm Payrolls report. Bitcoin, which trades around the clock, turned out to be the only major financial asset capable of reacting to this data in real time.
The jobs report: from minus to a modest plus
Consensus forecasts projected 57,000 to 60,000 new jobs created in March. That would be a modest recovery from February's collapse to negative 92,000, the worst reading since December 2020. Part of the rebound was expected from 31,000 Kaiser Permanente nurses who ended their strike in late February.
Before the pandemic, average Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded 180,000 per month. Even under an optimistic scenario, March's figures are roughly half that norm, pointing to a noticeable cooling of the labor market.
Why crypto became the sole barometer
The crypto market operates 24/7, and that rarely matters in practice: traders usually just wait for equities and futures to open. But April 3 is different. Good Friday shut down every major venue, and converting Bitcoin to dollars is happening without the usual stock market anchor.
Without parallel trading in S&P 500 stocks and Treasuries, any surprise in the employment data could trigger a sharp one-directional BTC move. Large institutional flows that normally dampen swings are on hold until Monday.
Geopolitics pile on the pressure
Two factors beyond the labor market are complicating things. First, President Trump declared readiness to strike Iran "within two to three weeks," a statement that already knocked Ethereum down 3.8% in 24 hours. Second, a baseline 10% tariff takes effect on April 5, with higher reciprocal tariffs following on April 9.
Over the past day, 140,000 traders saw their positions liquidated for a combined $422 million, with $249 million of that coming from longs. The market is clearly unprepared for additional shocks, and the NFP report became arguably the last catalyst capable of pushing BTC out of its $65,000 to $75,000 range.
Two scenarios for traders
- NFP above 75,000: a strong labor market pushes back Fed rate cut expectations. The dollar strengthens, and BTC risks sliding to $63,000 to $65,000.
- NFP below 30,000 or negative: weak data would boost expectations for monetary easing. That is a positive for risk assets, with BTC potentially moving toward $70,000 to $75,000.
Historical data supports this: when the Fear and Greed Index drops below 15, median Bitcoin returns over the following 90 days come in at +38.4%. But those are averages, and every cycle has its own logic.
What comes next
Monday will bring the NYSE, Nasdaq, and bond markets back online. If the NFP data turns out to be surprising, Friday's crypto reaction could set the tone for traditional market openings. Throughout the week, investors will be weighing both the April 5 tariff hit and fresh Iran-related developments.
For Bitcoin, these few days will test the "uncorrelated asset" thesis. If BTC holds the $66,000 level through all the pressure, that will signal resilience. If not, the next support sits near $60,000, where significant options volume is concentrated.
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