Hryvnia Stabilizes Below 44 UAH/$ - NBU Spent Record $1.34 Billion

The National Bank of Ukraine strengthened the official hryvnia exchange rate to 43.87 UAH/$ as of March 26, 2026 - down 5 kopecks from the previous day. After the dollar breached the psychological 44 hryvnia mark for the first time earlier this month, the regulator sharply increased its presence on the interbank market. The NBU's weekly foreign exchange interventions reached a record $1.344 billion - the highest level since late 2024.

Why the NBU deployed a record sum

March 2026 has been atypical for Ukraine's currency market. Usually, the hryvnia strengthens during this period thanks to seasonal growth in agricultural sector revenues and remittances from abroad. However, this time several negative factors converged simultaneously: the escalation of the Middle East conflict triggered a spike in energy prices, while the strengthening dollar on global markets added pressure on emerging market currencies.

Against this backdrop, demand for foreign currency in Ukraine surged. Citizens and businesses began buying dollars more actively, fearing further depreciation of the hryvnia. The NBU was forced to respond with massive currency sales from its reserves to maintain control and prevent a panic-driven exchange rate spike.

Current rates and bank situation

The cash market shows relative stabilization. Spreads between buy and sell rates at Monobank and other major banks have narrowed compared to peak values from early March, suggesting a decline in panic sentiment among the population.

State of international reserves

Large-scale interventions come at a cost. Ukraine's international reserves at the beginning of March stood at $54.75 billion - 5% less than the previous period. Continuing interventions at such volumes could accelerate the decline in reserves, which is why analysts are closely monitoring the balance between exchange rate support and preserving the financial safety cushion.

At the same time, the regulator emphasizes that Ukraine maintains a sufficient margin of strength. At the start of 2026, international reserves approached a record $60 billion, and even after active interventions, their level remains historically high. The key factor in replenishing reserves is external financial support from partners.

Analyst forecasts for April

Experts expect a moderate weakening of the hryvnia next month. According to ICU group estimates, the average rate in April could reach 44.3 UAH/$. The Kyiv School of Economics forecasts 44.5 UAH/$, while Concorde Capital predicts up to 44.8 UAH/$. The NBU itself refrains from specific forecasts, emphasizing that it does not set any "psychological boundaries" for the exchange rate.

The main pressure factors on the hryvnia in April will remain the geopolitical situation, energy prices, and seasonal demand for foreign currency from importers. A positive signal is the growth of external aid volumes and the stability of export revenues.

Implications for crypto exchange in Ukraine

Hryvnia exchange rate volatility directly affects the cryptocurrency exchange market. When the official rate rises, spreads on P2P platforms for hryvnia pairs also increase, making transactions more expensive. Those planning to sell USDT for hryvnia should account for increased volatility and carefully compare rates across different platforms.

Demand for stablecoins, particularly USDT, remains consistently high in Ukraine. Many Ukrainians use Tether as a value preservation tool during hryvnia fluctuations. According to analysts, Ukraine ranks among the top six countries by cryptocurrency penetration level and generates 2.5% of global crypto traffic.

For exchange market participants, it is critically important to monitor NBU decisions on exchange rate policy, as sharp changes in the official rate can significantly affect the profitability of converting between the hryvnia and digital assets.