Solana had one of its better weeks in April. SOL gained 10% in five days and trades around $86, a three-week high. Futures open interest grew from $3.5 billion to $4.2 billion in seven days, a 20% jump. Two drivers: the US-Iran ceasefire extension and a fresh wave of memecoin activity.
What the Futures Numbers Show
A 20% weekly jump in open interest signals that capital is re-entering the derivatives market. Longs and shorts are always matched by definition, so OI growth alone does not confirm a directional move. What it shows: traders are willing to take on risk again.
A 3% funding rate sits in neutral territory. Normal range runs from 5% to 10%. Below that, bulls are not overpaying for positions, and short sellers have not started covering at scale. On April 7, the rate went negative - uncommon in crypto markets. Since then it has stabilized noticeably.
Why SOL Jumped: Two Drivers at Once
Friday brought news of a US-Iran ceasefire extension. Brent crude dropped 8%, Bitcoin cleared $77,000. The broad market moved higher and SOL moved with it. But there was a second driver.
Between Wednesday and Friday, multiple memecoins gained 40% or more. During the previous memecoin rally (early 2025, after the Official Trump token launch) Solana led the market in user numbers and network activity. The market remembers that connection. Fresh memecoin activity raises demand for SOL as the network's base asset.
The Weak Spot: SOL Has Lagged the Market by 13% in 2026
Despite the weekly gains, the 2026 chart is not flattering. SOL has underperformed the broader crypto market by 13% year-to-date. Solana network DApp revenues have fallen to roughly $16 million per week - a steep drop from 2025 highs.
Context matters here. Ethereum generates $10 million in DApp revenue per week. BNB Chain produces $4 million. Lower on-chain activity is not Solana's problem alone. It is an industry-wide trend, and declining DEX volumes have hit every major network.
Where Solana Still Holds Strong
Despite the revenue decline, Solana holds its leadership in DEX trading volumes. By TVL, it sits second to Ethereum, and that gap narrows slowly. The speed and low cost of the network make a solid case for it as the platform for the next wave of DApp users.
AI agents could be that next wave. Solana's fast finality and cheap transactions suit automated on-chain activity. If AI agents scale up broadly, Solana is positioned to benefit more than slower or costlier networks.
The Path to $100: Shorts, Catalysts, and What Gets in the Way
With a 3% funding rate, pressure on short sellers is low. If SOL keeps rising, shorts will be forced to cover positions, and that covering adds buying pressure on its own. Analysts at CoinTelegraph describe this as the primary catalyst for a move toward $100.
From $86, $100 requires about 16% more. Not a large gap for an asset that already moved 10% in a week. The key condition: sustained geopolitical calm. If the US-Iran ceasefire holds, risk appetite keeps recovering, and SOL (which lagged all of April) could close that gap fast.
Low demand for long positions is, counterintuitively, a positive signal. Fewer overheated positions means less exposure to cascade liquidations. The market is building a base, not inflating a bubble. Whether $100 arrives next week or next month depends more on macro news than on Solana's on-chain metrics.
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