Standard Chartered: DeFi to Grow 37x to $2.7 Trillion by 2030

Standard Chartered forecasts a 37x rise in DeFi assets under protocol, reaching $2.7 trillion by the end of 2030. The projection came from Geoff Kendrick, the bank's head of digital assets research, in a research note published June 16. He points to tokenized real-world assets (RWA) and crypto-native capital as the two forces that will push total value locked (TVL) higher.

DeFi TVL currently sits at around $73 billion, per DefiLlama. Hitting $2.7 trillion would require a roughly 37-fold increase over four years. The bank frames this as a structural shift in how institutional capital will engage with onchain protocols, not a speculative projection.

Where DeFi Stands Today

Kendrick highlighted a large gap between the volume of tokenized assets already in circulation and the share actually flowing into DeFi protocols. Only 3% of the total stablecoin market is used in DeFi. For tokenized RWAs the figure is higher: 10%.

The rest of these tokenized assets sit outside protocols. They generate no onchain yield and play no role in decentralized liquidity markets. The bank argues this untapped pool is where the growth headroom lies.

The Forecast and Its Logic

Standard Chartered expects the share of tokenized assets active in DeFi protocols to climb from today's 3.5% to 30% by 2030. Triple the participation rate, combined with a larger base of tokenized assets in aggregate, produces the 37x TVL projection.

"I think the next opportunity for generational wealth in digital assets is going to come via the DeFi protocols."

Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research, Standard Chartered, from a research note, June 16, 2026

The bank had previously forecast non-stablecoin tokenized RWAs reaching $2 trillion by 2028, with tokenized money-market funds and US equities as the primary components. The new forecast extends that logic: a meaningful share of those assets must move into DeFi protocols rather than staying in passive custody.

Stablecoins and RWAs: Capital Sitting on the Sidelines

The stablecoin market has passed $240 billion, but most of that supply sits outside DeFi protocols. Several large financial institutions are already testing onchain infrastructure for their own tokenized products. Kendrick argues that closing this participation gap will be the main driver of TVL growth.

Researchers caution that tokenization does not automatically solve liquidity. The same asset issued across multiple chains can trade at different prices and complicate arbitrage. Axis CEO Chris Kim has warned that fragmented liquidity raises transaction costs and limits actual trading volume even as the nominal market grows.

Uniswap as the Central Hub

Kendrick singled out Uniswap as a likely central venue for tokenized asset trading. He pointed to the platform's scale, brand recognition and track record across multiple market cycles.

For traditional financial institutions bringing tokenized RWAs onchain, safety and reliability rank above cost. Those qualities, in Kendrick's view, position Uniswap as the natural entry point for large TradFi capital flows.

"If Uniswap can commercialise enough and create significant enough TradFi partnerships to scale, its market cap-to-transaction-fees multiple is likely to increase, narrowing the gap with Coinbase," Kendrick wrote. The UNI token rose more than 13% on June 16 after the note was published. Analysts say full realization of the forecast would give UNI roughly 40x upside by 2030.

Risks That Could Limit the Forecast

• Liquidity fragmentation: the same asset issued on multiple chains creates isolated pools, complicating arbitrage and raising transaction costs.
• Regulatory requirements across jurisdictions may prevent large funds from participating directly in DeFi protocols.
• Oya Celiktemur of Ondo Finance noted at Paris Blockchain Week in April 2026 that tokenizing an illiquid asset does not make it liquid automatically.
• Reaching $2.7 trillion TVL requires both growth in tokenized asset supply and a sharp jump in the share of those assets deployed in protocols.

Is the $2.7 Trillion Scenario Realistic

Standard Chartered's forecast is one of the most specific from a major bank on the future of DeFi. The market would need to grow in four years by roughly as much as it has grown in its entire history. For that to happen, the share of assets in Ethereum and other DeFi chain protocols must increase nearly ninefold from today's levels.

For the crypto market the signal is clear: large capital no longer sees DeFi as a niche instrument. Whether the forecast materializes depends on two things. Can the market solve liquidity fragmentation? And will regulators provide workable rules for RWAs in decentralized protocols?