US Inflation Holds at 2.4% — Fed Expected to Keep Rates Unchanged

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index data for February 2026. Headline CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, exactly matching analyst forecasts. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, came in at 2.5% annually.

What the CPI Data Showed

Monthly consumer price growth was 0.3%, in line with median market expectations. Core CPI posted a gain of just 0.2% for the month — a sign that inflationary pressure is gradually easing, though the pace of deceleration remains insufficient for an immediate shift in monetary policy.

The largest price increases were recorded in housing and medical services, while consumer electronics and apparel prices continued their decline. Energy prices remained relatively stable despite fluctuations in oil markets.

Crypto Market Reaction

Bitcoin briefly climbed to $70,359 following the data release but quickly retreated to the $69,500 level. Ethereum showed slightly better performance, gaining 1.5% to reach approximately $2,053. Overall, the market reaction was subdued — investors had already factored this scenario into their positions.

Why the Market Didn't Rally

In theory, stable inflation is a positive signal for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. When prices rise more slowly, investors anticipate monetary policy easing, which boosts demand for digital assets. However, in this case the market had already fully priced in this outcome.

Moreover, the current federal funds rate range stands at 3.5–3.75%, and traders assign minimal probability to a rate cut in the coming months. A meaningful crypto rally would require either a sharp inflation drop below 2% or clear signals from the Fed about willingness to ease.

The Fed's Stance

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for March 18. Futures markets assign over 95% probability to rates staying unchanged. Most analysts also expect no changes at the April meeting — the first possible cut is projected no earlier than June 2026.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the regulator needs "prolonged evidence" of sustained movement toward the 2% inflation target before any rate reduction. The February data, while in line with expectations, does not provide such evidence.

What's Next for Crypto

The next key catalyst for digital assets will be the FOMC decision on March 18 and the accompanying Powell press conference. Until then, Bitcoin is likely to continue consolidating in the $68,000–$71,000 range, with total crypto market capitalization remaining near $2.37 trillion.

Investors are also closely watching geopolitical factors — particularly the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices, which could significantly impact inflation expectations in the coming months.