Bitcoin slipped almost 2% on Monday morning in Asia and traded near $79,800. Traders are cutting risk ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting that ends on Wednesday, October 28.
It is a packed week. The Fed, the Bank of Canada, the ECB and the Bank of Japan announce rates, while Coinbase, Robinhood, Galaxy Digital and Strategy report earnings. The rate figure itself matters little, since a hold is already priced in. The market wants to hear what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh says about December.
Bitcoin under $80,000, ether near $2,300
According to CoinDesk, almost everything was sold. Ethereum lost nearly 3% and trades just above $2,300, while XRP dropped about 3% to $1.28. Solana slid 2% and barely holds $100. Dogecoin, Zcash, Hyperliquid and BNB each fell 1-2%. Only TRX is in the green, and by less than 1%.
Buyers need to win back $82,500. That is the level bitcoin lost last Thursday. Until the price gets above it, the current dip is hard to call a pause. Late last week, long liquidations took $404 million in just four hours, The Block reported, so the market has little cushion.
The market is waiting for Warsh, not the rate
The Fed announces its decision on Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, and the press conference starts at 2:30. The current range is 3.75% to 4.00%. Almost nobody expects a change. So all the attention goes to tone.
The risk is that Warsh hints at a hike in December. Pricier loans pull money out of risky assets, and crypto is one of them. Oil at $114 a barrel and sticky inflation make that scenario more credible.
"The Fed probably won't change rates this week, but we're watching how strongly the chair hints at a December hike. That is what matters for crypto."
Jeff Mei, chief operating officer at crypto exchange BTSE, comment sent by email
Vugar Usi Zade, the head of exchange MEXC, shares that view. In his words, a hold will not be a positive catalyst because the market has already priced it in.
Four central banks in four days
The Bank of Canada meets on Wednesday, right before the Fed. The ECB decides on Thursday, followed by a press conference from Christine Lagarde. On Friday it is the Bank of Japan, which has the lowest rate of the four.
Thursday also brings September PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. The previous reading was 3.4% year on year, with the core figure at 3.0%. The same day, the first estimate of US third-quarter GDP lands, with analysts expecting 3.2% against 2.2% in the second quarter.
The sequence itself matters for crypto. The decisions come one after another, and each can shift expectations for liquidity. If the Fed and the ECB both sound tough within a day of each other, the reaction in risk assets could grow.
Coinbase and Strategy earnings, plus the crypto calendar
Galaxy Digital reports before the open on Tuesday and Robinhood after the close. Analysts expect Robinhood to earn $0.55 per share. On Thursday after the close, Coinbase and Strategy report, and those two matter most for the crypto market.
The forecast for Coinbase is a loss of $0.10 per share, and for Strategy a profit of $8.34. The second number depends on how bitcoin is revalued on the balance sheet, so it is hard to guess. If bitcoin ends the week below $80,000, the Strategy report could come in weaker than expected.
Oil, Asia and ETFs pull in different directions
Brent fell 2% from a six-month high but stays near $114 a barrel. Donald Trump said it is "getting to be decision time": either a deal with Iran or renewed attacks. Oil at these levels feeds inflation fears, and with them bets on a tougher Fed.
The AI selloff continues in Asia. South Korea's Kospi fell 1% after Goldman Sachs strategists cut their 12-month target for the index by 25%. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index cannot escape four straight weekly losses, its longest run since April. Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.1% ahead of earnings from the biggest US tech companies.
US spot bitcoin ETFs offer some support. Last week they collected $301 million in net inflows and ended a two-week outflow streak, although $635 million left them in a single day on Thursday.
Besides earnings, the calendar holds a few crypto events that are easy to miss.
- October 26: Blast closes its normal withdrawal interface. Funds can still be pulled through bridge contracts on Ethereum.
- On October 27, Binance ends spot trading in EPIC and QUICK.
- On October 29, Unichain plans to move sequencer operations from Uniswap Labs to the Optimism Foundation.
- October 30: on Balancer's timetable, pausable pools move to withdrawals only, protocol fees go to zero and the bug bounty ends.
Separately, on October 29 Collector Crypt (CARDS) unlocks about $20.9 million of tokens, or 0.6% of circulating supply.
Two governance votes are also running. ENS DAO is deciding whether to grant 201,559 USDC for its working group expenses, with voting ending October 26. CoW DAO is voting to let its core team set protocol fees within predefined ranges, closing October 28. It is a conference week too: Ripple Swell in New York, Zcon7 in Cancun, MERGE in Madrid and Meridian in Lisbon.
Bottom line: $82,500 and two sentences from Warsh
The base case is simple. The Fed holds, and the market reacts to what is said about December. A soft tone could send bitcoin back to $82,500 quickly, while a hard one opens the door to fresh lows. Thursday's Coinbase and Strategy reports will add volatility right after the ECB decision.
We at Kurslog watch rates every day. If you are thinking about whether to sell bitcoin for dollars, it makes sense to wait for Wednesday's 2:30 p.m. press conference, because it will set the tone for several days.
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