On Thursday, October 22, US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $635 million in net capital. According to SoSoValue, that is the biggest one-day outflow since June 25, when the funds gave up $696 million. A three-day streak of inflows worth $1.08 billion ended in a single session.
The month is now $175 million in the red. Bitcoin trades near $81,800, just under the average cost basis of ETF investors.
Biggest outflow in four months
On Wednesday the funds collected $528 million, and the October deficit looked like it was vanishing. Thursday reversed that with interest: across the two days the net result was minus $107 million. For scale, $635 million sits close to the June peak of $696 million, a gap of only 9% between the two record outflows.
A swing like this is rarely random. When more leaves in one day than came in the day before, it is usually not one big player but a broad decision to cut risk after bad news. Prices show which news: on Wednesday Bitcoin reached $84,777, and on Thursday it traded between $80,996 and $82,551.
A +$443 million week inside a negative month
The weekly total looks decent at +$443 million. But the week followed two straight weeks of outflows, and here the two trackers disagree. Decrypt counted minus $615 million for the month as of October 17, while SoSoValue gives minus $175 million after Thursday. Add the $1.08 billion of inflows, subtract $635 million, and both counts line up to within a few million.
The previous two weeks drained about $910 million ($681.1 million and $228.6 million). The worst day of that stretch, October 7, brought minus $484.9 million. So three days of inflows covered roughly half the two-week losses, and Thursday reopened the wound.
Altcoin funds are in the red too
The outflow did not stop at Bitcoin. Ethereum funds lost around $111 million, Solana funds about $9 million, and Hyperliquid (HYPE) funds around $8 million. Together that is $128 million, or 20% of the Bitcoin fund outflow.
So this is not a rotation from Bitcoin into altcoins. Money left every major position at once, and the lone $3.6 million inflow into XRP funds is barely visible next to that.
ETF holders' cost basis as a line of defense
Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev puts the average cost basis of Bitcoin ETF holders near $82,300. Cointelegraph's coverage cites $81,500. The gap is small, and the price now sits right between the two estimates. Nobody can say exactly how many holders are underwater, but the longer the price stays below, the more of them want out at breakeven.
Macro adds pressure. US inflation hit 3.7% in September against a 3.6% forecast, and the market is again pricing in the risk of another Fed rate hike. Decrypt also reported oil above $111 a barrel and weak AI stocks, while Cointelegraph pointed to Trump's remarks on Iran. All of it weighs on risk assets at the same time.
Three scenarios for the coming weeks
The numbers alone do not give a forecast, but they set a frame. Here it is, without betting on a specific price:
- Inflows return. A new run of 3-4 positive days would put October back in the black and the price above the ETF holders' cost basis.
- Sideways trade around $81-82K. Outflows and inflows alternate, and the week closes near zero.
- Thursday repeats. Another day with several hundred million in outflows, and Bitcoin retests $80,000, where it already was earlier this month.
For those planning to sell Bitcoin for hryvnia, ETF flows are only one signal. Exchanger rates move with the global price, not with weekly fund statistics. At Kurslog we compare exchanger offers in real time, so the spread between them is visible at once.
What to watch next
The first thing to check on Friday is whether the session repeats the outflow. One day does not make a trend: the June $696 million did not start a new collapse either. The second marker is whether the price holds near $80,000 without fresh exits from the funds. Cumulative inflows since the January 2024 launch remain around $57.3 billion and fund assets stand at $104 billion, so a single bad day does not break the picture. But the Fed rate path and the $82K cost basis remain the main caps on upside for now.
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