Clarity Act After the Democratic Win: Market Gives the Bill 3% for 2026

Democrats won both chambers of the US Congress, and a prediction market now puts the odds of the Clarity Act being signed before the end of 2026 at just 3%. The crypto market structure bill was already stuck in the Senate, and its fate will now be decided by a different Congress.

Prices took it more calmly than politicians did. Bitcoin bounced off a six-week low and climbed back above $80,000, while Ethereum rose as much as 7%.

The Senate stalled the bill back in September

In September, senators voted 49 to 50 against advancing the Clarity Act. Clearing the procedural hurdle required 60 votes, so the bill never reached a full debate. It was not a final verdict, but in practice the law stalled.

Talks kept hitting two issues, namely limits on the crypto business interests of officials and rewards paid on stablecoins. The personal and family crypto ventures of President Donald Trump became a separate point of conflict for Democrats. Now they hold a majority in both chambers.

Anthony Scaramucci, a former White House communications director, said Trump's memecoin ventures derailed the bill, Cointelegraph reports. After the election, tokens linked to Trump topped the list of market losers.

Over $300 million spent and a loss in Ohio

Across two cycles, 2024 and 2026, the industry spent more than $300 million backing friendly candidates. About $176 million of that went to over 100 races this year. The money was meant to buy clear rules for exchanges and issuers.

The result was mixed. By CoinDesk's calculation, more than a third of the spending by the Fairshake super PAC missed its target, most painfully in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown beat Jon Husted and returns to the Senate. The Digital Chamber called the win the "most consequential unfavorable result" for the industry.

The market had priced in the election

Bitcoin gained 3.5% to $80,500, and Ethereum added up to 7%, touching $2,434. Stocks moved the same way, with US equities up about 1.6% and the Dow Jones up 2.5%. That makes the bounce hard to pin on politics alone.

Analysts who spoke to Decrypt say the Democratic sweep was already in prices before election night. Technically it looks like an ordinary bounce after a selloff, not a trend reversal or a burst of FOMO. Bitcoin is holding above its 50-day average, which is a decent sign after weeks of correction. Bitcoin and Ether funds drew $128 million in a day, even though they closed October in the red.

What the new Congress cannot undo

The Trump administration eased pressure on the industry, set up a strategic Bitcoin reserve and pushed a federal stablecoin law through Congress. A Democratic majority does not reverse any of that automatically. For exchanges, token issuers and firms that need clear legal permissions the difference is real, and for the price of Bitcoin it is much smaller.

Tokenization and stablecoins, experts told CoinDesk, can keep growing under existing laws. Morgan Stanley, for example, is among the first banks to tokenize US equities and Treasurys through the DTCC service, and USDC operates under a law that has already passed. Still, the SEC and CFTC face tougher oversight, and nobody knows how long their current rules will last.

Three scenarios before January

The current Congress sits until January 2027, and the next one will form without the old majority.

• A quick compromise: according to Decrypt, Democrats are already talking about a deal, and their demands on official ethics and stablecoin rewards look reasonable.
• A new bill from scratch after January 2027, with the industry having to find votes among Democrats.
• Tougher oversight: markets and tokenized stocks are in the crosshairs.
• The market is under pressure even without politics: it lost about $300 billion in a month, and year-to-date outflows from Bitcoin funds reached $1.84 billion.

What to count until January 2027

Three numbers set the frame, namely 49 to 50 in September, a 3% chance of signing the bill this year and a $2.67 trillion market that shed about $300 billion in a month. The chance of getting the Clarity Act over the line with this Congress is minimal. Real bargaining starts with the new chambers, and a lot will depend on whether the industry accepts tougher terms on officials and rewards.