Gemini Stock Is Down 80%, and Takeover Talk Is Back

Gemini shares have lost about 80% since the company went public. Its value fell from $4 billion at the peak to $753 million. So the market is guessing again who might buy it.

What happened to Gemini

Gemini Space Station (GEMI) belongs to the Winklevoss twins. The company's market value now sits at $753 million. That is roughly one fifth of the peak.

The explanation hides in the business numbers. Exchange revenue for the second quarter fell 38% year on year to $12.5 million. Spot trading volume shrank 66% to $3.8 billion. Assets on the platform dropped from $18.2 billion to $8.4 billion. Who would pay the old price for numbers like that?

CoinDesk reported this. Gemini itself declined to comment.

For comparison: this week Bitcoin climbed back above $80,000, and the whole crypto industry grew to $2.85 trillion. The market is alive. But an exchange earns from how much people trade, not from one price on a chart. When volumes collapse by two thirds, the stock reflects it.

The market is also splitting. CoinEx is closing after nine years because of the downturn, while Kraken got $100 million from Nasdaq this month at a $21 billion valuation. Money goes to those with scale and ties to traditional exchanges.

Who could buy it

Last month Lorenzo Valente, director of digital asset research at ARK Invest, wrote on X that Hyperliquid should buy Gemini. That would give the offshore perpetuals platform a regulated way into the US, where it could launch futures and prediction markets.

The idea did not come out of nowhere. This week Coinbase, Kalshi and Crypto.com went to regulators with plans to launch perpetual futures on single stocks in the US. And the HYPE token set a record above $90.

Hyperliquid has been looking for a road into the American market for a while. In early September it was reported that the platform was discussing a US launch of perpetual futures with Payward, the parent company of Kraken. There is no sign that talks about Gemini are actually happening. But the question stays. What exactly would a buyer pay for?

What a buyer would really pay for

The exchange technology itself, according to a venture investor who spoke to CoinDesk, barely stands out from competitors. The value lies elsewhere.

• Licenses and approvals that Gemini holds through its subsidiaries.
• The customer base.
• Custody infrastructure for storing assets.
• The years and legal fees a buyer would not have to spend on its own approvals.

The investor explained the logic simply. Buyers compare the price of the company with the time and lawyers' fees that getting such permits from scratch would take. He spoke anonymously because the matter is private.

To get a license, a company goes through checks, builds a reporting and internal control system, and answers to a regulator. That takes months, and often years. This week the SEC opened the way for tokenized stocks, so existing permits may get pricier, because they help a firm reach new products faster.

A similar story has played out before. In April CoinDesk reported that potential buyers looked at Gemini's closed European and UK operations. They wanted the licenses, not the whole business. No deal has come, because the sides value the price differently.

The market is moving the same way. In July Keyrock bought BlockFills' trading assets for the licenses, derivatives expertise and institutional clients. Ondo is exploring a deal worth up to $500 million. LMAX and B2C2 have also considered strategic transactions. Buyers increasingly pay for permits, clients and market access. Trading volume interests them less.

Two people hold the say

The Winklevoss twins, Cameron and Tyler, control 94.5% of Gemini's voting power. So talks would run, in essence, with two people. That simplifies the process.

But there is a flip side. Without the brothers' consent a sale is impossible, and a hostile bid or shareholder pressure is almost ruled out. Even when the company has gotten cheaper, a buyer has to convince them personally.

The other shareholders decide almost nothing. They can only wait to see whether the brothers want to sell and at what price. The company is worth $753 million against $4 billion at the peak, so price will be the main question.

What comes next

There are no official statements about a sale. Two things are worth watching: whether a public offer appears and what Gemini's next quarterly numbers show.

For customers this is so far talk around one analyst's post and an anonymous source. The reports do not mention changes to how the platform works. If you use Gemini and want a backup, you can compare other platforms in our catalog of crypto exchanges.