Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro stated in an April 4, 2026 research note that the crypto market has "likely reached a cycle bottom." The core argument: after four months of continuous outflows, $1.32 billion in institutional capital flowed back into spot Bitcoin ETFs in March. According to Yaro, this shift reflects a transition from speculative selling to accumulation by long-term funds.
Yaro's Three Signals
Yaro points to three signs of a market turnaround. First: forced liquidations on crypto exchanges fell to their lowest level since August 2025 in March. This means most over-leveraged positions have been unwound, and selling pressure from margin calls is fading.
Second: Bitcoin's price has held above $66,000 for three consecutive weeks, establishing a support level. Goldman's technical analysis marks the $68,000–$71,000 zone as critical. If it holds, it would confirm bottom formation.
Third: the buyer profile has shifted. From November through February, short-term traders dominated as they locked in losses. In March, institutional funds and hedge funds with 12-month-plus horizons accounted for the bulk of purchases.
ETF Inflows Return After Four-Month Drought
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become the primary gauge of institutional crypto appetite. From November 2025 through February 2026, these funds recorded continuous net outflows, peaking during the week when BlackRock sold $201 million in BTC from its iShares Bitcoin Trust, pushing total weekly outflows to $296 million.
March reversed that trend: $1.32 billion in net inflows returned to spot ETFs. Goldman says this is the largest monthly inflow since October 2025. Yaro interprets it as a signal that "the leverage washout is complete" and that large-scale capital is once again willing to hold Bitcoin in portfolios.
Earlier, Bernstein analysts also called current levels a cycle bottom with a $150,000 target by year-end. Goldman Sachs now echoes that view, though with more cautious language and no specific price target.
Crypto Stocks Down 46%
Beyond Bitcoin itself, Goldman's team examined crypto-exposed equities. Since October 2025, these stocks have lost roughly 46%, exceeding BTC's own ~45% drawdown from its peak. The bank's analysts believe valuations have become attractive for long-term positioning.
Top "buy"-rated picks include Robinhood (a brokerage with significant crypto revenue), Figure Technologies (target raised to $42, implying 35% upside from current levels), and Coinbase. Goldman expects all three to be the first beneficiaries when trading volumes recover.
Risks: Volumes May Drop Further
Goldman Sachs is not unconditionally bullish. Yaro warned that trading volumes on crypto platforms could decline further, reducing their revenue by 2% and profits by 4% over 2026. Historical data shows that low-volume phases typically lasted about three months before a durable recovery took hold.
Another caveat: in previous bear markets, Bitcoin fell 80–93% from its peaks. The current ~45% drawdown looks milder, but this could reflect either a stronger buyer base or the possibility that the decline isn't over yet.
Why It Matters
When one of the world's largest investment banks identifies a potential crypto cycle bottom, it influences decisions at pension funds, family offices, and hedge funds. For retail investors considering buying Bitcoin with hryvnia, Goldman's signal could serve as an additional data point.
The key caveat remains: the market is trading in a narrow $66,000–$71,000 corridor, and confirming a bottom requires a pickup in trading volumes. For now, Goldman recommends a "selective approach" and a focus on companies with the strongest balance sheets.
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