Nakamoto owes Kraken $165M as Q3 revenue turns negative

Nasdaq-listed Nakamoto, which holds bitcoin in its treasury, posted a third quarter with negative operating revenue: minus $1.9 million against the $17.4 million analysts expected. A $5.8 million loss on options ate the whole $3.9 million the businesses earned.

A second number drew even more attention. According to CoinDesk, Nakamoto's debt to the exchange Kraken (165 million USDT) is larger than the market value of the entire company. Shares traded near $5.40 on Friday, fell 6.5% before the open, and are down about 62% since January.

Minus $1.9 million instead of the expected plus $17.4 million

The revenue math is short. The company's businesses brought in $3.9 million. Net losses on bitcoin options came to $5.8 million. Together that gives minus $1.9 million, as the quarterly filing states.

The consensus forecast was almost $19.3 million higher. For a small company the gap is hard to miss, and the market reacted at once. Nakamoto launched its options strategy with Bitwise and Kraken to hedge risk, according to Cointelegraph. A hedge costs money, and this quarter that cost landed straight in revenue.

An $85.5 million profit the work did not produce

For the quarter Nakamoto reported net income of $85.5 million. It came from revaluing digital assets, mostly bitcoin: a $110.4 million gain. Without it, the adjusted operating loss is $15.8 million.

For a shareholder the second figure matters more. The revaluation depends on the BTC price on the reporting date and can swing back just as easily. The operating loss does not depend on it.

Kraken debt: $60 million pushed back a year

In an SEC filing the company said it had extended repayment of $60 million in USDT owed to Kraken. The new deadline, Dec. 4, 2027, replaces Dec. 4, 2026. Total debt is unchanged at 165 million USDT. The remaining 105 million USDT is due by June 30, 2027. No principal payments are scheduled for 2026.

Collateral rules changed too. The positive net value of certain bitcoin derivative positions Nakamoto holds with Kraken can now count toward collateral. That is an extra cushion: if the pledged coins lose value, derivative gains reduce the need to post more collateral or repay part of the loan.

71% of the bitcoin is pledged, and the price is working against it

On Sept. 30 Nakamoto held 4,283 BTC worth $357.9 million. At the end of June it held 4,467 BTC, which is 184 more. Of the current stack, 3,030 BTC are pledged as collateral, about 71% of holdings.

Let's run the numbers at $67,087 per BTC (the quote shown on Cointelegraph on Friday). All 4,283 coins are worth about $287 million, or $70 million less than on Sept. 30. The pledged 3,030 BTC come to $203 million against $165 million of debt, coverage of roughly 1.23 times. If collateral only just matched the debt, bitcoin would have to trade near $54,500, 19% below today's price.

That is plain arithmetic, not a margin-call threshold. The exact top-up terms are not in the coverage we read.

What could go wrong

• The BTC price: every 10% drop cuts the value of the pledged coins by about $20 million.
• The options hedge could again produce a loss inside revenue, as it did in the third quarter.
• 105 million USDT is due on June 30, 2027, eight months from now.
• In our view, issuing new shares to repay debt would be expensive, since the stock has lost 62% this year.

Bottom line: time bought, risk kept

Pushing $60 million back a year removes the nearest pressure, because Nakamoto repays no principal in 2026. Still, 105 million USDT due in June 2027 and 71% of the bitcoin pledged leave little room if BTC keeps sliding. We read this as a test case for every bitcoin treasury carrying debt: a hedge loss, debt above market value and a price near $67,000 all showed up in one report. It is too early to call the outcome, but the next quarter will show whether the derivatives cushion is enough.