Quadruple Witching — $4.7T in Derivatives Expire as Bitcoin Faces Pressure

On March 21, 2026, stock markets entered a quadruple witching day — the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index options, index futures, and single-stock futures totaling $4.7 trillion. Bitcoin approached this event hovering around $70,000, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 23 — deep into the extreme fear zone.

What is quadruple witching

Quadruple witching occurs four times a year — on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. On this day, four types of derivative contracts expire simultaneously: stock options, stock index options, index futures, and single-stock futures. Institutional players rebalance portfolios en masse, unwind hedges, and adjust risk exposure, creating a surge in trading activity.

The March 2026 witching event is one of the largest in recent quarters. The total notional value of expiring derivatives is estimated at $4.7 trillion. Trading activity typically spikes during the final hour of the session as institutions complete their rebalancing and lock in quarterly results.

Impact on Bitcoin and the crypto market

Bitcoin increasingly correlates with traditional risk assets, meaning sharp moves in equities during mass derivatives expiration often spill over into cryptocurrencies. According to Cole Kennelly, CEO of Volmex Finance, the Bitcoin Implied Volatility Index (BVIV) is already rising ahead of the event, signaling heightened expectations for price swings among market makers.

Ahead of quadruple witching, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a second consecutive day of outflows — $90 million left the funds on Thursday alone. Total crypto options open interest has reached $33 billion, while the put/call ratio climbed to 0.84 — its highest level since June 2021, pointing to a significant uptick in bearish sentiment among options traders.

Historical patterns

Analysis of previous witching days in 2025 reveals a consistent pattern: on the expiration day itself, Bitcoin's price action remains muted, but over the following 1–3 weeks, the price declines steadily. Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, confirms this tendency: "Witching days affect crypto over the following weeks, as mass options expiration forces market participants to radically restructure their positions."

• March 2025: modest decline on expiration day, followed by a gradual drop to $76,000 over several weeks
• June 2025: down 1.5% on Friday, then a pullback to $98,000 within two trading days
• September 2025: down 1% on expiration day, followed by a sharp drop from $177,000 to $108,000

Next milestone — March 27

For the crypto market, the main test still lies ahead. On March 27, quarterly crypto derivatives worth $13.5 billion expire on the Deribit exchange. Elevated demand for volatility strategies — rather than clear directional bets — suggests that traders are bracing for wide price swings rather than making a definitive bet on rally or decline.

At the same time, there is a positive signal: long-term holders of Ethereum and Bitcoin are slowing the pace of their selling. If this trend holds, it could stabilize the market after the volatility wave and lay the groundwork for a recovery.

What investors should consider

• Don't panic: on the witching day itself, moves are usually moderate — the main risk extends over 1–3 weeks after contract expiration
• Watch volumes: a sharp spike in trading volume during the final hour of the session is a typical marker of institutional rebalancing, not panic
• Assess risks: those planning to sell Bitcoin for UAH may take advantage of the current consolidation before potential volatility picks up
• Watch March 27: the $13.5 billion crypto derivatives expiry on Deribit could trigger a second wave of price swings

Bottom line

Quadruple witching on March 21, 2026, is one of the biggest derivatives market events this quarter. While the day itself rarely brings a crash, the weeks ahead could prove volatile for cryptocurrencies. The two-stage pressure — first $4.7 trillion in equity derivatives, then $13.5 billion in crypto derivatives — means investors should prepare for elevated swings through at least early April.