NBU Keeps Key Rate at 15% in March 2026

On March 19, 2026, the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine decided to keep its key policy rate at 15%. This marked a pause in the monetary easing cycle that began in January with a reduction from 15.5% to 15%. The regulator cited growing external risks and the need to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

Why the NBU Hit Pause

The main reason for holding the rate steady was external shocks. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East triggered a surge in energy prices, directly affecting inflation expectations in Ukraine. The NBU governor warned that inflation could exceed previous forecasts due to rising global energy costs.

Additionally, the regulator noted increased volatility in the foreign exchange market. With pressure on the hryvnia, a rate cut could have further weakened the national currency and fueled price growth. The NBU therefore opted for a conservative approach, choosing to hold steady.

Impact on Deposits and Lending

Keeping the policy rate unchanged means deposit interest rates at Ukrainian banks will remain at current levels. For depositors, this is a positive signal: hryvnia deposits continue to offer attractive yields of 14–16% per year. In particular, PrivatBank and other major banks maintain competitive terms for fixed-term deposits.

At the same time, borrowing costs remain high. The NBU stressed that the current rate level does not threaten lending development, but businesses and consumers continue to face expensive credit, which constrains economic activity.

Hryvnia Stability and the FX Market

The NBU's decision is aimed primarily at maintaining exchange rate stability. A high policy rate makes hryvnia-denominated instruments more attractive compared to foreign currency, reducing capital outflows and easing depreciation pressure. Under current geopolitical conditions, preserving this balance is the regulator's top priority.

Analysts note that the hryvnia exchange rate is likely to remain relatively predictable in the near term, without sharp swings. This creates a stable environment for both traditional currency operations and cryptocurrency-to-fiat exchanges.

Impact on Crypto Exchanges in Ukraine

The stability of both the policy rate and the hryvnia directly affects the crypto exchange market. When the national currency is predictable, spreads at exchangers remain moderate. Those looking to buy USDT with hryvnia can expect stable rates in the coming weeks without unpleasant surprises.

However, high deposit yields create competition for crypto assets. With bank deposits offering 14–16% annually, some investors may prefer hryvnia savings over Bitcoin or other volatile digital assets. That said, long-term crypto investors typically focus on global trends and technological development rather than short-term deposit returns.

Outlook and Expectations

Experts expect the NBU may resume rate cuts as early as the April meeting, provided the situation in the Middle East de-escalates and inflation stabilizes. If external risks persist, the regulator could hold the rate unchanged through mid-summer 2026.

For participants in Ukraine's crypto market, this means that conditions for exchanging digital assets to hryvnia will remain stable and predictable. The absence of abrupt monetary policy moves reduces local market volatility and creates a comfortable environment for cryptocurrency transactions.