Galaxy Research says the Bitcoin bear market ended back in June. In a report dated October 26, Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, called the present moment a good time to buy and hold Bitcoin. The thesis rests on five straight weekly closes above the 50-week average.
The market is in no rush to agree. On Sunday Bitcoin briefly dipped to $79,700, which is 36% below the October 2025 high and 39% above the June 30 low.
44 weeks below the line and five above it
Thorn starts with the 50-week moving average. Bitcoin spent 44 weeks under it, reclaimed it in September, and the week to October 18 made it five weekly closes in a row above the line. Since 2011 the asset has reclaimed the average four times after 20 or more weeks beneath it. Each time, over the following year the price never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level and eventually set a new record. Four cases is a small sample, and that is where the thesis is most fragile.
The halving cycle gives a similar signal. The three earlier cycles bottomed 777 to 912 days after the halving, and Thursday was day 916. This drawdown is also the shallowest on record, at 53% against 77% to 93% before.
Market value never dropped below realized value
For the first time in any bear market, Bitcoin's market value did not fall below its realized value, the average price at which each coin last moved. The ratio between them bottomed at 1.10. In past cycles the lows were 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75.
Buyers who carried the recovery from $58,525 have an average entry of $74,811 and sit on roughly 9% profit. Yet the SOPR indicator, which tracks sales at a gain, reads 1.009, so only a few are cashing out. Coins untouched for five years or more are being sold at 34,000 BTC a month this year, half the 2024 pace.
87,000 BTC in ETFs and a $1.99 trillion deficit
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low. Their holdings shrank just 11% from peak to trough, even though the price fell 53%. Fund investors, it seems, held on harder than the rest of the market.
The macro picture has also strengthened, according to Thorn. US federal debt reached $40.44 trillion, the fiscal 2026 deficit came in at $1.99 trillion, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% this month, its highest since 2007.
"A bet against stocks and hard assets is a bet on fiat, the one position that makes no sense today."
- Alex Thorn, head of firmwide research at Galaxy, Galaxy Research report of October 26, 2026
What muddies the picture: ETFs, the Fed and the cutoff price
The same week, spot ETFs swung from a three-day, $1 billion inflow streak to two days of heavy outflows, and October stayed in the red (we covered that separately). Hotter-than-expected US inflation data revived bets on another Fed rate hike. A higher rate lifts bond yields, and a nearly risk-free paper paying 5% makes Bitcoin a harder sell.
- Cutoff level: a weekly close below the 50-week average, now $76,540, that is not regained within a month.
- From $80,000 that level is about 4.3% away (my estimate), so the cushion is thin.
- Galaxy and Thorn himself disclosed that they hold Bitcoin, so the interest is direct.
- The target on the horizon, per Thorn, is $125,000, since Bitcoin has shown it can get there, and he sees no reason it cannot repeat.
The call in numbers
Galaxy bets that the bottom stayed in June at $58,525 and that today's $80,000 is the start of accumulation. The chart, onchain data and ETF flows offer many arguments, but the sample behind the 50-week average is small, and rates and inflation push the other way. The nearest test is simple. Will the weekly close hold above $76,540? At the least, the forecast has a clear line at which its author admits being wrong.
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