Ukraine Inflation Accelerates to 7.6% — Pressure on Hryvnia Grows

According to State Statistics Service data published on March 10, 2026, annual inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 7.6% in February, with monthly price growth at 1.0%. The figure came in slightly above the National Bank's forecast, increasing pressure on the hryvnia and raising interest in cryptocurrency tools for preserving value.

Inflation Breakdown

According to the NBU's commentary, actual inflation slightly exceeded the trajectory outlined in the January Inflation Report. Price growth for fuel, services, and raw food items came in above forecast, while processed food price dynamics were more moderate.

Key Price Growth Drivers

The most notable acceleration was recorded in the raw food segment. Vegetable prices — cucumbers, tomatoes, and borscht ingredients — rose due to higher import costs. Fruits, particularly bananas and citrus, also saw significant price increases. However, a slowdown in pork and chicken price growth partially restrained inflationary pressure.

Fuel price increases driven by the Middle East escalation and rising volatility in global energy markets were a separate factor. For Monobank and other bank cardholders, this means gradual erosion of hryvnia balances in their accounts.

Discount Rate and Monetary Policy

On January 30, 2026, the NBU lowered the discount rate from 15.5% to 15.0%, taking the first step toward monetary policy easing. However, accelerating inflation casts doubt on the possibility of further cuts at the upcoming meeting. The regulator emphasizes that inflation remains moderate but pro-inflationary factors are intensifying.

Impact on Crypto Exchange

The combination of 7.6% inflation and hryvnia weakening to a record 44+ UAH/$ creates a powerful incentive to seek alternative value preservation tools. Stablecoins like USDT, pegged to the dollar, effectively protect against both risks — inflation and devaluation.

Growing demand for purchasing USDT with hryvnia confirms this trend. Payment via Visa and Mastercard bank cards remains the most popular method for acquiring stablecoins among Ukrainian users seeking to preserve the purchasing power of their savings.

Outlook

The NBU expects gradual inflation decline to the target range of 5% ± 1 pp in the medium term, but external shocks — primarily energy prices — could adjust this forecast. For Ukraine's crypto market participants, the key indicator remains the gap between inflation and hryvnia deposit yields: as long as the real rate declines, demand for dollar-pegged digital assets will continue to grow.