Bitwise: Stablecoins Won't Hit $4 Trillion Without Apple, Google and Stripe

The stablecoin market could reach $4 trillion by 2030, but only if major technology companies start using them at scale. That is the view of Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise. Without adoption from Google, Apple and Stripe, stablecoins risk staying a niche tool for crypto trading rather than becoming a global payments layer.

Where stablecoins stand today and why that is not enough

Right now, stablecoins primarily serve crypto trading and dollar-equivalent savings outside the banking system. Hougan argues that this use case caps the market at a few hundred billion dollars. Combined market cap of USDT and USDC already passed $200 billion, but most of those funds sit with traders as a reserve between positions.

To reach $4 trillion, stablecoins need a different job. They have to become a payment method for businesses and consumers in everyday transactions. That requires distribution. And stablecoins do not have it on their own.

The average consumer does not hold a crypto wallet. They will not open an exchange account to buy USDC in order to pay a subscription. That distribution problem gets solved only through platforms people already use every day.

Why big tech is the key to unlocking the next trillion

Hougan explained the real corporate appeal of stablecoins. A company handling millions of micropayments across dozens of countries deals with bank accounts in every jurisdiction, currency conversions, delays on international transfers, and middleman fees. A stablecoin removes most of those steps. One wallet, one address, settlement anywhere in the world with no correspondent banks in between.

That simplification argument, not the speed or cost of an individual transfer, is what matters to a corporate CFO. Rebuilding global payment infrastructure around a single address is worth more than shaving a few basis points off a wire fee.

How GENIUS Act changed the calculation for US companies

Before GENIUS Act, US companies faced regulatory ambiguity around stablecoins. Was a corporate stablecoin a security? Where did licensing requirements apply? Who was responsible if the peg broke? That uncertainty kept legal teams from signing off on any crypto integration. Large companies walked away from stablecoin projects not because the technology was unproven, but because the rules were not written yet.

GENIUS Act set clear requirements: reserves must be audited, issuers register with federal or state regulators, and algorithmic stablecoins without real backing are essentially prohibited. After that framework arrived, Visa expanded its stablecoin settlement pilot to five more blockchains and Stripe announced USDC payouts for its partners.

Hougan pointed to this legislative moment as a turning point. Corporate legal teams that previously blocked any stablecoin involvement now have a framework they can work with. The risk that once killed internal proposals has become a calculable compliance cost.

What is still in the way

The US banking sector is pushing back hard on stablecoins. The argument is straightforward: a stablecoin competes with a bank deposit. If a corporation parks $500 million in USDC instead of a bank account, that bank loses those funds as a lending base. Banks lobbied successfully to include a clause in GENIUS Act banning crypto exchanges from paying interest on idle stablecoin balances. A win for banks, though not a complete one.

Network fragmentation remains a separate issue. Which blockchain should a corporate stablecoin run on? Ethereum gets expensive during peak load. Solana is faster but less familiar to corporate treasury teams. Visa, Mastercard and Stripe are betting on multiple networks in parallel to avoid a single-chain dependency. The right call, but it complicates standardisation across the industry.

BCG's $4 trillion projection is the optimistic case. McKinsey's estimate lands at $2 trillion for the same 2030 horizon. Both scenarios require stablecoins to move beyond their current user base. Bitwise is betting that happens. Whichever tech giant makes stablecoins a default in their product will set the direction for everyone else.